Remember the Reagan
Revolution? It's over. For 30 years, the political
system has been dismantling the burden of taxes and regulations imposed on
the economy by the New Deal. When Ronald Reagan won the White
House in 1980, he inherited a tax system that claimed up to 70% of
taxpayer income, and a political culture in which even Republicans were willing
to consider price controls as a way of suppressing inflation. The Reagan
Revolution eclipsed such thinking, wiping out a generation of liberal
presidential candidates -- Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry -- who wanted to
return to New Deal policies.
But a counter-revolution
is brewing, and the regulators are poised to return to
power. Tighter fuel-economy standards are being imposed on
autos. Controls are being instituted to rein in mortgage
lenders. Suburban jurisdictions around Washington and other cities are mandating
"green" construction standards for new homes. And those are
just the headlines from today's Washington
Post. The drumbeat of doubt about whether market forces can be
trusted to deliver the best results has become deafening. In the years
ahead, the heavy hand of re-regulation is likely to descend on a wide range of
industries:
-- The poor on-time records
and flagging finances of airlines have convinced many
observers that Carter-era deregulation is a failure. Fares are much
cheaper than back then, but most other industry metrics have
deteriorated. Things have gotten so bad that even industry gurus
like Robert Crandall are calling for a return to regulation.
-- Deregulation of electricity
generation has become a political hot potato as rising rates convince
many users they are being gouged. In some states such as Texas and Massachusetts,
rates have risen over 50% since deregulation occurred at the beginning of
the decade. A lot of the increase results from higher fuel costs, but
rates aren't rising as fast in states that still regulate.
-- After
resisting efforts to impose new fuel-economy standards on automobiles
for years, the Bush Administration now plans to toughen
requirements. Average fleet efficiency will be required to
rise from 25 miles per gallon today to 32 miles in 2015 -- a one mile
improvement each year for seven straight years. The move is supposed to
reduce dependence on overseas oil and limit greenhouse gases.
-- With the finance
industry facing problems reminiscent of the Reagan-era savings
and loan debacle, federal regulators are asserting greater
oversight. Federal Reserve officials say the regulatory system
needs to be streamlined to detect problems sooner. That means less
innovation in a sector that has turned indebtedness into a core feature of
national life.
Heavier regulation of other
industries will follow, from housing to healthcare to higher education.
It isn't hard to see why faith in market forces has waned: the economy
has made a weak start to the new millennium, with sub-par growth rates, weak
job creation (at least in the private sector) and staggering trade
deficits. The cost of just about everything has risen faster
than wages, from food to energy to education to medical coverage. So
proponents of regulation in academia and government are gaining the upper hand
against advocates of market forces. But it's an open question whether
more regulation can solve any of these problems. And we'll see how all
the academic critics of free enterprise feel when the government
tells them their colleges are charging too much for an education.