A Historic Showdown: Why Putin And Trump Are Meeting In Alaska (From National Security Journal)

The full text of this article is available below and in National Security Journal here.

United States President Donald J. Trump’s Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin has one purpose: to see if Putin is serious about a ceasefire.

Despite multiple trips to Moscow by highly-trusted Ambassador Steve Witkoff, Trump’s longtime associate and friend, the American president wants to look Putin in the eye. Trump says, “Probably in the first two minutes, I’ll know whether a deal can be made.”

The Intricate Art of the Deal

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy doubts Putin is sincere. “So far, there is no indication whatsoever that the Russians have received signals to prepare for a post-war situation. On the contrary, they are redeploying their troops and forces in ways that suggest preparations for new offensive operations,” he wrote on X on Aug. 11.

Inviting Putin to Alaska is the right call. Old-fashioned diplomacy demanded that every detail be aligned in advance, down to the color of the flower arrangements. Trump plays it differently. For this New York real estate magnate, multiple meetings to hammer out deals are the norm.

Alaska is both a convenient and significant location, not least because of the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued for Putin due to the abduction of children from Ukraine. If Putin touched down in Paris, he’d be handcuffed. The Great Circle Route from Moscow to Alaska cuts straight across the Arctic without Putin’s plane entering European airspace. An Alaska summit also shows off American military power at its best.

F-22s, F-35s, the Ground-based missile defense interceptors, Joint Base Elmendorf: all reiterate America’s Pacific reach and Arctic presence. After all, “Alaska is the most strategic place on earth,” stated Brig. Gen. Billy Mitchell in testimony before Congress in 1935.

Even if the Alaska meeting brings a ceasefire closer, it will not remove the military threat of Putin’s resurgent Russia. “Russia will undoubtedly in my mind remain a threat,” NATO’s new Supreme Allied Commander Alexus Grynkewich said recently.

Wartime Casualties

Putin goes to Alaska as a leader who failed at war and has cost Russia close to one million casualties in four years of war.

Ukraine, by any measure, is the winner of this brutal conflict. Russian tanks closed to within less than 20 miles of Kyiv before being stopped and destroyed at Bucha. Ukraine’s forces then cleared Russians out of the northern invasion zones, liberated Kharkiv, and have since denied Russia full control of prizes such as Donetsk, including territory Russia briefly held in 2014. Ukraine still holds the key city hub of Kramatorsk, for example.

Yet out of the ashes of the Ukraine war, Russia has arisen as a military threat to NATO and an agent provocateur encouraged by Xi Jinping’s China. Putin’s Russia has “refashioned its military, economic, and social structures to sustain what it describes as a long-term confrontation with the West,” noted outgoing SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli. Russia’s defense spending is nearly 40% of all government spending, the highest since the end of the Cold War, and Russia is on track to replace all the equipment lost in Ukraine.

Russia Advances Goals, Despite Summit Talks

Russia’s partnership with China has advanced to joint bomber patrols and naval exercises carried out in August in the Sea of Japan. In 2024, Russia tested its new intermediate-range Oreshnik missile against a Ukrainian target. Co-production of Iranian-designed Shahed drones continues.

Even if peace comes in Ukraine, Grynkewich said Russian capabilities will reconstitute. Earlier this year, a Danish intelligence study estimated Putin could attack in Moldova in under six months and be ready for an assault on one of the Baltic states in two years. NATO’s new war plans have refocused on combined arms operations. “Deterrence is most challenging in the land domain,” according to SACEUR. Any Russian attack against Europe would “likely begin with a comparatively large Russian force positioned on a NATO border in order to negate traditional US and NATO advantages in, and preferences for, long-range, standoff warfare. The Operation Steadfast Defender exercises in 2024 marshalled 90,000 forces from all 32 partners for the biggest exercise since 1988.

“We have got to build capabilities at mass,” concluded Grynkewich.

This threat is why NATO has sprinted to coordinate over $1 billion in purchases of US equipment for Ukraine just as of early August. Germany is sending two more Patriot batteries, and several other nations have aid and military assistance en route.

“The challenge is taking that commitment and turning it into real capability and capacity on the battlefield,” Grynkewich warned. “We have a shopping list,” he added. “We need real capabilities delivered as soon as possible.”

US and NATO Bracing

Top of the list is the M1 Abrams tank, a favorite of Trump, which remains the key chess piece along NATO’s eastern front.

That front now pivots on Poland. The Suwalki corridor on the border of Poland and Lithuania proves the point. The corridor connects to Kaliningrad, a map accident from 1945 exploited by Stalin and turned into a Russian settlement enclave. Now, Kaliningrad bristles with top-line Russian air defenses.

Holding this area requires tank defenses and airpower to prevent a quick Russian move similar to the 2022 attack on Kyiv. While Ukraine had maneuvering space to turn back that onslaught, the Suwalki corridor could be choked off fast unless forces are in place. The Army’s newest M1E3 version is lighter and modified to incorporate lessons from Ukraine, including advanced sensors, autonomy, and modular armor protection against drones. “We are going have armor on the modern battlefield,” Army Chief of Staff General Randy George said in a recent podcast interview, and George is speeding up delivery of new Abrams tanks. Tanks and airpower must be in place to deter.

Holding off Russia will also require extensive air defenses. Putin’s primary form of escalation of late has been unleashing his vast arsenal of missiles and drones. Patriot air defense batteries have shot down Russian Kinzhal Kh47M2 hypersonic missiles. They are so popular that Norway and Sweden are chipping in to pay for Romania’s new Patriots, and President Volodymyr Zelensky asked to buy 10 Patriot batteries for Ukraine. The problem is that Patriot batteries are scarce. The Netherlands gave theirs to Ukraine, and that NATO ally is still awaiting backfill. Remember the two US Patriot batteries that launched “a bunch” of hit-to-kill interceptors to defend Al Udeid Air Base against Iran’s attacks were actually pulled from their normal locations in Japan and South Korea, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Daniel Caine.

What Will Happen In Alaska? 

The Alaska meeting will set the agenda for US-Russia relations for quite some time to come. Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, and the new START agreement extension expires in February 2026.

Alaska will also be an initial data point on whether there is any hope left for nuclear arms control.