At Munich Conference, Five Ways to Get NATO Allies to Spend 5% (From RealClearDefense)

The full text of this article is available below and in RealClearDefense here.

The Munich security conference starting Feb. 14 is going to blow the lid off NATO.  President Donald J. Trump may be starting negotiations with Russia, but NATO’s defense challenges won’t go away even if the guns fall silent in Ukraine.

“I’m also going to ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is what it should have been years ago,” Trump said in Davos at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23.  This should have been no surprise, since Trump bandied about a 4% spending level for NATO allies as a stretch goal during his first term.   

The reason, of course, is the aggression of Russian President Vladimir Putin, fully greenlighted by China.  Failing to eject Russia from Ukraine is going to be costly. 

As a smackdown of Russia in Ukraine slips away, NATO will have to spend more to counter Russia over the long term.  NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Christopher Cavoli said last year that Russia will be a big problem for years to come. 

Trump’s not alone his assessment of the financial requirements for peace and deterrence.  Poland and the nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, U.S. NATO allies bordering Russia, have committed to military modernization and endorsed the Trump 5% GDP defense budget target.  Listen to new NATO member Sweden.  “There is a broad consensus in Sweden that we need to invest more in our defense,” Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard said on Jan. 8.   “U.S. governments have long urged European countries to increase their defense spending and to bear more of their own defense costs. We share this view.”

Here are five ways to prod NATO allies to spend more, starting with the U.S.

Boost U.S. spending to 5%.  The USA does not spend 5% of GDP on defense.  While total U.S. defense spending at $841 billion in 2024 far exceeds other NATO nations, it adds up to about 3.36% of GDP on defense, according to the Peterson Institute.  President Trump can give a boost to new Senate Armed Service Committee Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker, (R-Mississippi) who wants to add $200 billion to this year’s defense spending.  Speeding up shipbuilding, buying next-generation aircraft, investing in nuclear modernization, and fully funding the space force could bump up the U.S. percentage fast.   

Counter Russia’s rearmament.  Yes, Russia failed to take Kyiv in 2022, but since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin has ramped up Russia’s defense industry, to deliver 1500 tanks and 3000 armored fighting vehicles annually.  Compare that to the 660 tanks and 3103 armored fighting vehicles delivered to Ukraine by partners since 2022, said the 2025 Munich Security Report.  Include the drones from Iran, subterfuge electronics from China, and it adds up to Russian rearmament.

Validate the long-term Russian threat.  Russia’s troops are engaged in Ukraine right now, but Joris Van Bladel, a specialist in Russian military matters and a senior associate at the Egmont Institute, the Royal Institute for International Relations, in Belgium, told Le Monde last summer it is only a matter of time until Russia again strikes westward.  According to Van Bladel, Russia will “push the offensive” somewhere else in Europe within two to five years.  “What we’re witnessing currently on the eastern flank is actually a race against time,” Bladel said. 

Follow Poland’s lead.  Actions speak louder than words. Poland began modernizing nearly a decade ago as it sized up Russian intentions. Poland is budgeting 4.7% of GDP for defense and intends to increase that amount to 5% within just a few years. Poland has already purchased more than $50 billion worth of modern military equipment from the U.S.; everything from F-35 fighters to Patriot air defense systems to $12 billion for Apache helicopters. Having given a lot of their tanks to Ukraine, Poland has also bought nearly 400 U.S. Army Abrams tanks, and the Polish army has a requirement for 800 additional tanks to augment NATO’s deterrence of Russia. 

Create Incentives.  Here’s a task for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.  Relax on ITAR and other export control minutiae.  Secretary Rubio should give the top-spending NATO allies a break on the State Department’s labyrinthine arms export policies.  The clearest way to do this is to sign technology cooperation treaties, as the U.S. has already done with Great Britain and Australia.  Frontline states like Poland merit similar status, especially as Poland has already opened military sustainment centers for NATO allied equipment that will save precious time and money when ground combat vehicles need to be repaired.  Allies spending at the 5% rate should get a break on the paperwork needed to stand up interoperable forces and facilities.

Boosting NATO spending is the only way to counter Russia – and China – but the U.S. must lead the way. 

IMAGE: LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR LE MONDE