Chinese Missile Provocations Underscore Urgency of Triad Modernization: B-21, Sentinel and Columbia-class (From the John Batchelor Show with Gordon Chang)

On July 6, 2026, China launched a rare intercontinental ballistic missile test from a Type 094 submarine on an alarming trajectory over the Pacific.  Catch the discussion with John Batchelor, Gordon Chang, and Rebecca Grant, covering China’s motives, the importance of America’s nuclear Triad modernization, and mastery of the long-range kill chain across the Pacific.  Highlights below, and segment link here.

John Batchelor: We’re eager to hear from Rebecca Grant, our colleague, to understand the crisis caused by People’s Republic of China’s PLAN Navy deciding to use one of its few, very noisy boomers (that’s a missile boat) in the South China Sea, we’re told, firing a 10,000-kilometer missile into the nuclear-free zone of the Pacific; overflying northern Luzon, overflying Japanese airspace, overflying Palau, the northern Marianas, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, aiming towards Fiji, where the Prime Minister of Australia was in concert with the leadership in Fiji.  Knowing all of this, the Chinese went ahead and did it the day before a NATO meeting while RIMPAC was going on in Hawaii.

Rebecca Grant: This was the most obnoxious possible flight route for a test missile.  It also comes as Russia and China gear up for their naval exercises. It was just last year that a Chinese submarine joined those exercises for the first time.   Now we have this test. It’s worrying at so many levels.  Let me just point out the contrast.  When the U.S. last did a test of our D5 missile in the Atlantic last fall, it was an over-water route.  The lat longs were given out to everybody.   We actually tested four different missiles, and they went into the waters of the Atlantic, some down as far as off the coast of Africa. Here we have China choosing deliberately to overfly contested territory, to overfly sovereign states.  It’s just the most obnoxious test imaginable.

Gordon Chang: Rebecca, I get the sense that China especially over the last month or so, has become much more aggressive and provocative. Do you have a reason for this?

Rebecca Grant: It’s staggering.  Is this Xi Jinping trying to exert his control and power domestically? Did he end up firing too many senior officers and they’re getting out of control?  Or does he think that President Trump has relaxed America’s vigilance in the Pacific? Because if so, he’s absolutely wrong.  What scares me about this test is China’s quest not only to fill out the nuclear triad, but to greatly increase their status as a nuclear power. Now about 600 warheads, up from just a few hundred, and on track to reach a total of about 1000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and then go straight to 1500. There’s no need for China to be building out its nuclear force.  But this test of their, as John says, rather noisy submarine and this nuclear armed missile shows us that they are intent on being a world nuclear power.

John Batchelor:  In detailed technical language, the Global Times described this as a sea-based deterrence and counter-strike.  Unpacking that, sea-based deterrence means first strike.  Is there anything else it could mean? 

Rebecca Grant: I think that’s intended for China to say that they do have this ability now.  Now as we know, the U.S. is basically building the Columbia-class which is our advanced boomer, nuclear powered, nuclear-armed submarine that will replace our Ohio-class.  That’s a top priority, so important that Deputy Secretary of War Feinberg has put an Admiral in charge just of that program, with special authorities to accelerate it and get it going.  But you know what we see with China is they have much smaller submarine forces than we do, but they are intent on making it part of this triad.  It just shows you that China really is willing to go to all lengths to achieve military dominance. 

Gordon Chang: Rebecca, Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, and Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, have proposed substantial reductions in the Columbia-class and have also proposed substantial reductions in the U.S. nuclear force.  Will those proposals gain any traction in Washington these days?

Rebecca Grant: Not with China on the rise, and Russia still a menace.  On the contrary, I think modernizing the nuclear Triad is probably the number one priority.  We’ve got a very large defense budget request there, and we’ve got programs that are actually doing extremely well.  The B-21 is the bomber leg. That program has been accelerated because it’s ahead of schedule, and performing very well in flight test.  And they have just restructured the Sentinel, which is the new ICBM to replace Minuteman, and made some important changes there to get that program on track, so it will field quickly. Then, of course, Columbia-class, as you said, the first boat is due to take up its role as early as 2030, 2031.  Our lawmakers have to realize that this is essential, in a way that it never even was in the past, because now we have to deter both Russia and China.

John Batchelor:  I note that the Russians and the Chinese are conducting a joint exercise simultaneously with RIMPAC, although far away, on the Asian continent.  Here’s the puzzle Rebecca. The submarine that fired the missile was not listed on the manifest of the joint exercises.  It was not named.  There are submarines involved in the joint exercise with Russia.  Are there rules about these joint exercises that you have to list everybody that’s present because it could be hostile if you don’t?

Rebecca Grant: Well, it’s always nice to give out the Notice to Mariners and make sure everybody knows what’s going on, but China doesn’t seem to play by those rules.  The fact is China knows that we still have the advantage in the Pacific, we’ve got the ability to close that long-range kill chain.  Our aircraft carriers are involved in that  We are waiting now, very shortly, to hear the announcement of the Navy’s new stealth fighter for the carriers, that will allow them to stand off and strike at even deeper ranges.  And then we have our dominance in space, which actually is critical to shutting down China’s ability to target.  Add to that, we really are #1 when it comes to submarines.  No one can touch the U.S. Navy.  The Chinese know that perfectly well, despite this obnoxious test shot that they just did.  They still have a long, long way to go to catch up to our ability to handle the undersea conflict. 

Full segment here.