The Danger Of Buying The Air Force’s Next Ballistic Missile From The Lowest Bidder (From Forbes)

The U.S. Air Force is responsible for two of the three legs in the nuclear triad.  In 2015 it awarded an engineering contract to develop the nation’s next long-range strategic bomber, and in August of this year it awarded two risk-reduction contracts that commence development of a successor to the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile.  If strategic modernization is to move forward without an undue degree of risk, though, the service needs to take a different approach to developing its new ballistic missile than it did to developing the bomber.  In the case of the bomber, the service accepted a winning bid that was so aggressive in terms of cost that execution to schedule is unlikely.  Burdening a second leg of the the triad with similar developmental uncertainty would be dangerous.  The Air Force should probably spend less time trying to get a bargain, and more time considering the risk-limiting way the Navy has gone about sustaining its own leg of the triad — sea-launched ballistic missiles.  After all, nuclear deterrence is one mission where the survival of the nation could ultimately be at stake.  I have written a commentary for Forbes here.