Five Ways The Ukraine War Could Become A Nuclear Conflict (From Forbes)
Despite frequently warnings from Russian officials that the Ukraine war could lead their country to use nuclear weapons, much of official Washington does not take the possibility seriously. That is a mistake. There are multiple ways in which war-related developments might lead to nuclear use. Russia’s conventional forces might face defeat on the battlefield, with nuclear weapons appearing to be the only path left to victory. Ukraine might threaten core Russian interests, a “red line” in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine. Moscow might misinterpret military signals in a way seeming to warrant nuclear use. Central control of nuclear forces might break down, or extreme nationalists willing to use nuclear weapons might depose Putin. With Russian political machinations largely opaque to the West, military planners have little choice but to consider perilous possibilities. I have written a commentary for Forbes here.
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