Iran Has No Tactical Control Over the Strait of Hormuz (From FOX News)

With over 60 ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on June 20, this is a major turning point. The national emergency is ending, but President Donald J. Trump must keep focus on reassuring the shippers, including ending his Jones Act waivers. 

Highlights below from the discussion with FOX News Channel host Jon Scott, Anchor of The Fox Report, and full clip here.

Jon Scott: President Trump is floating the idea of the U.S. becoming a sort of guardian angel of the Middle East and a toll collector. When you look at the situation with the Strait right now, I mean, was there a failure to think through the ramifications of the attacks on Iran? Because you know closing down the Strait has obviously caused a lot of turmoil in the world economy.

Rebecca Grant: You know, the reaction of the international shippers cowering at anchor that was unexpected. But today, I’ve got to tell you, things are looking good. The Strait is open even according to the UN. We’ve got 50-60 ships transited yesterday, that’s about half of the [pre-war] traffic flow and the biggest number that we’ve seen since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. Navy already is the guardian of the Strait. We need to keep up the confidence of the international shippers; but if Iran sends out one drone, or one fast boat, the U.S. Navy will answer with bombs.

Jon Scott: The Energy Secretary Chris Wright echoes the kind of progress that you’re talking about, and says the Iranians have to learn a hard lesson.

Secretary of Energy Chris Wright (Sound on Tape): We got 67 ships through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday were some of them concerned? Sure. Is this thing over and completely done yet? No. But what we’re demonstrating to the Iranians is, we can have flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with or without them. We can destroy their nuclear program if they don’t want to make any arrangements, or any agreements, we can continue to settle these things the way we have.

Jon Scott: Maybe there’s a slight moderation of their behavior for some economic rewards, but they only get rewards if they stop the destructive behavior. It does seem the Iranians are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face, when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Rebecca Grant: Iran has no tactical control of the Strait of Hormuz. This number, this 67 ships, this is a major turning point, and it’s thanks to some very quiet counter-mine ops by the U.S. Navy and the spread of air power from F-16s, to aircraft carriers, to Apaches, that is right now over those waters. That said, I do think President Trump needs to stay laser focused on this, personally. It’s time for him to cancel his Jones Act waiver. The national emergency is over, U.S. ships can handle our coastwise trade, but he also needs to really reassure those shippers. CENTCOM will do a lot, and then if we have traffic flowing like it is today, Iran is just out of the picture.

Jon Scott: What about other nations? The entire world really has been crippled to some extent maybe crippled is too strong a word, but they’ve been harmed by the Iranian closure. Are other nations willing to get involved to help keep the Strait open?

Rebecca Grant: At the G7 meeting, they signed on to a British-French plan. For instance, aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle is down in the region at the moment, and I think other ships are planning to enter at some point. This is good reinforcement, but it is definitely a U.S. Navy and U.S. joint force show at this point, and they’ve done a tremendous job. Most of this traffic now is going the Oman route, the usual inbound/outbound route, nothing over towards the coast of Iran and Iran is just going to be locked out. I love it.

Jon Scott: One of the questions, though, is whether the Iranians are just trying to stall. I mean, they’ve got apparently 60 days to flesh out the details of this memorandum of understanding. Are they trying to stall until the midterm elections, and perhaps, the President’s defeat of his party at the polls? Here’s what Karl Rove has to say about all of that.

Karl Rove (Sound on Tape): Each side, the United States, President Trump, and the Iranians have made big bets. The U.S. bet is that the Epic Fury military mission in essence convinced Iran that it’s got to change its ways; and the Iranians, in my opinion, their view is that the midterm elections and gas prices place a limitation on the U.S. and they’re going to use that as maximum leverage to get concessions.

Jon Scott: So who wins this staring match, Dr. Grant?

Rebecca Grant: Well, he makes a good point, but you know what, I don’t care what Iran thinks. The reality is no path towards a nuclear weapon; their military leveled by Operation Epic Fury; and now President Trump really has that leverage in the Strait. No one can pay their tolls. Secretary Bessent sanctioned that, and the ability of the U.S. Navy to hold the geopolitical control of that Strait, and get that traffic moving, it’s just going to sideline Iran, no matter what they think.

Jon Scott: And the President says we are going to at some point retrieve the nuclear material that Iran has stockpiled, which may be under tons of rock right now. Dr. Rebecca Grant, thank you.