Iran’s Piracy, “Shoot to Kill” and Deterrence of China (From FOX News)

As U.S. Navy forces seized an illicit Iranian oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, President Donald J. Trump authorized the U.S. Navy to “shoot to kill” if Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps navy fast boats try to lay mines or otherwise disrupt operations in the Strait of Hormuz.  “I’m hereby ordering that activity to continue but at a tripled-up level,” Trump posted Apr. 23.  The next morning, FOX News anchor Ashley Strohmier led off the discussion on Iran and China.  Highlights below and full clip here.

Ashley Strohmier: First, I just want your reaction to this shoot and kill order.

Rebecca Grant: Lethal force is absolutely appropriate. Notice that President Trump really focused on any attempt by Iran’s fast boats to put mines out in the Strait.  Right now, we have a couple clear shipping channels that our U.S. Navy destroyers have ready to go, so we don’t want to see more activity from IRGC Navy remnants that are acting like pirates.  I’m telling you, they’ve only seen a glimpse of what the U.S. Navy could do.  The U.S. is in control of that Strait, and the U.S. needs to keep that control.

Ashley Strohmier: Do you think this is the pressure that Iran needs to face from the President to cave in, and be like, we can’t do this anymore?

Rebecca Grant: You know, it’s a brilliant move, because with the blockade, President Trump can dial up or dial down the pressure.   The U.S. Navy can continue this blockade as long as necessary, and it’s amazing seeing the intercept of that Iran shadow fleet tanker in the Indian Ocean.  That’s out in IndoPacom, Admiral Paparo’s command, and so that tells us that Iran’s shadow fleet is a target anywhere they are. That’s a great message to China

Ashley Strohmier: For all the people out there who didn’t want to see this happen in the first place, and now it’s dragging on into the second and third month, I mean what do you what do you think? Do you think this is close to being over?

Rebecca Grant:  It’s going to take some time.  President Trump says, give him the time and the space to make the best deal, and the point here is we still want the nuclear fuel, “nuclear dust” accounted for, and all the provisions to make sure Iran can never be a threat again, and never be on that pathway to a nuclear weapon.  It’s going to take a little more time.  This blockade pressure is another key pressure point on Iran.

Ashley Strohmier: You mentioned China: it’s the shifting impacts of the war on America’s deterrence, specifically in relation to China.  The Wall Street Journal reported that quote “the US has burned through so many munitions in Iran that America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if it occurred in the near term. The US has fired more than 1000 long range Tomahawk missiles since the war with Iran began on February 28^th, as well as 1500 to 2000 critical air defense missiles.  Only replacing those stockpiles could take up to six years.”  That’s a long time.  What are your thoughts on this? Do you think that the U.S. and the military would be capable of deterring something against the US or Taiwan?

Rebecca Grant: Yes, deterrence is the right word and to me, Operation Epic Fury has been a huge message to China, and greatly increased our deterrence.  On those specific munitions, the Pentagon has just about tripled the production rate for some of them. Tomahawks are an older missile, we’ve got a lot of them, we have a lot of other types of missiles in the inventory and look, we’ve got two aircraft carriers in the Middle East right now, another one on the way, and a carrier in the Pacific.  I think our deterrence against China has been made much stronger by the air dominance and sea power that we see, with our 50,000 U.S. service members deployed in the Middle East.  I think Operation Epic Fury has really scared Xi Jinping.

Ashley Strohmier: No question about it, China’s watching this like a hawk…you got to think about the oil and the gas; what do you think China is thinking right now?

Rebecca Grant: China gets about 40% of that oil that comes through the Strait.  You know, Iran was a pretty big oil supplier to them, and what China sees is that President Trump has control of that key route, and President Trump is really using U.S. military power. The Pentagon is planning for more B-21 bombers, a Navy 6^th-generation fighter and so many other programs like the MV-75.  The Ospreys that you see landing on the shadow fleet container ship, we’re going to buy a new variant of that.   Everything is being restocked to deter China and then putting this oil chess board in a different frame, I think it really overall strengthened the U.S. geopolitical position in our competition with China.

Ashley Strohmier: Rebecca, your final thoughts on where we stand right now with Operation Epic Fury? 

Rebecca Grant: Operation Epic Fury did a great job taking away Iran’s military power, for power projection, and in the Strait.   But don’t forget, it’s all still there, all the planes, fighters, bombers carriers, destroyers, everybody’s still there, in case President Trump needs that, if the negotiations don’t go well.