Philippines Risk and China (From CBS Radio Eye on the World)

John Batchelor, Gordon Chang and I talked on Wednesday Aug. 28 about the provocative Chinese “coast guard” harassment in the Philippines, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s talks in Beijing, a proposed Zoom meeting with US and Chinese military leaders, the Pacific carrier gap and what to do if Xi Jinping risks war.  Listen to the full segment here. 

While the White House and State Department have been reading out statements, it’s time for a clear statement that America won’t stand for Chinese escalation in harassment of the Philippines.  What works with China is to show the U.S. military is watching their fleet. The confrontation in the Philippines has gotten to the point where China needs to see specific, non-provocative but pointed military moves from the US.   

Gordon Chang pointed out that Xi Jinping is willing to risk war.  I agree, there is a risk.  The “red line” for the Philippines is a fatality; if a Filipino sailor dies due to China’s actions, President Ferdinand Marcos may invoke the binding mutual defense treaty with the US. 

Final minute, Gordon Chang: “If the United States floods the zone with the US Navy and Air Force, do the Chinese back off?”

Rebecca Grant: “I think they certainly could.  They would be using their Coast Guard vessels and they would be severely outgunned.  The difficulty is right now is the zone flooded with US military power now is the Red Sea.  Two aircraft carriers there, none in the Pacific, both these vessels were pulled out of Indo-Pacom to go watch over the Red Sea and preserve security there.  I think China has figured out that our Navy and Air Force are distracted with events in the Middle East and it’s making it easier for them to nudge and push and poke at the Philippines.”

At thirty seconds, John Batchelor: “Did I hear you say they are going to have mil-to-mil Zoom conversations?”

Rebecca Grant: “That was one of the initial readouts.  This goes back to a longstanding desire for senior leaders to talk with their counterparts in China, in partly because no one knows what these Chinese generals and admirals are thinking….It’s a good intention, but I’m not sure this crisis management, soft-sell stance is what’s needed; we can do that, but we need to have the appropriate, intimidating force laydown in the Pacific to go along with it.”