Poland Needs A Lot More Abrams Tanks, Fast

The US-Poland defense partnership is the key to NATO deterrence of Russian aggression.  Why?  Because Russia is rearming far faster than expected.  The new strategic reality in Europe is that it will take tanks in Poland to stop Russia. 

“We are living in the most critical moment since the end of World War II,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said recently.  Poland will need tanks, armor, mobile artillery and more to pose a viable deterrent to Russian aggression.

Tanks, of course, are Putin’s top offensive weapon.  Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 with as many as 2,000 tanks, including its most modern T-72 and T-90s.  Despite combat losses, Russia is on track to add 1,200 tanks per year, according to NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Christopher Cavoli.

As a result, NATO’s strategy puts tanks at the center of deterring Russia, and Poland’s large, well-trained military is the bulwark.  Poland has already purchased a total of nearly 400 US Army Abrams, the strongest, most lethal tank developed specifically to defeat Russian tanks. The first batch of more than 100 Polish Abrams were quickly produced as an urgent backfill requirement, after Poland donated several hundred tanks to Ukraine. Poland is also buying South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks as a stop-gap. 

The most modern M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams is also on order for Poland, and deliveries should begin in late 2024.  Along with enhancements such as the active protective system (APS), the latest M1A2 SEPv3 will be more survivable against threats like the small, explosive drones seen on the Ukraine battlefield.  More armor on top plus counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) will blunt the first-person view drone tactics. 

For the future, Poland needs far more than the 366 tanks on contract.  The US Abrams industrial base has capacity to spare to support an increasing amount of such foreign military sales.   Warsaw estimates that it will need an additional 800 modern tanks to complete its armor modernization plans.

Poland needs more Abrams, fast, because Russia is not backing down.  At first, it appeared the war in Ukraine would degrade Russian capability and make it easier for NATO to maintain deterrence.  Russia has lost 2,000 tanks and 315,000 dead and wounded in Ukraine.  But overall, Russia’s army is now 15 percent bigger than it was in 2022.  Its frontline troops in Ukraine grew from 360,000 to 470,000.  Putin plans an army of 1.5 million and production of 3 million artillery rounds per year.  All these facts were laid out by SACEUR Cavoli in Congressional testimony on April 10. 

Fortunately, NATO placed an advanced battlegroup in Poland, where the US Army is a framework partner.  US Army units based in Poland train side-by-side with a steadily growing Polish Army equipped with the most modern US weapons systems.  The US Army already has one armored brigade (nearly 100 Abrams) based in Poland and may have more in the future. Poland has been reinforced by the recent addition of the US Army Garrison Poland, coinciding with the opening of the Regional Competence Center for Abrams tanks in Poznan.  The new center will be able to repair not only Poland’s tank force but also the US Army’s vehicles. Polish industry is a partner in this new capability and will likely have a growing role.  Very soon, this facility should be available to provide Abrams tank maintenance for other allies on NATO’s eastern border, including Finland, the Baltics, and Romania. It would also be available for any Abrams in Ukraine.

Of course, the Abrams tanks are only as good as the training that comes with them.  To maximize effectiveness, Poland and the US have already begun to work together on counters to new battlefield threats like drones and on refining tactics for tanks in combined arms operations.  Ukraine’s battlefield and their Abrams employment hold plenty of lessons that will benefit NATO as a whole. 

There are also US Abrams units deployed to other NATO member countries, including Lithuania. Romania has recently ordered 50 Abrams for its own armor forces. NATO Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) members are gradually standardizing on the Abrams as the principal main battle tank.

The Russian threat is escalating.  Recent gains by Russia have analysts bracing for the impact of a Russian victory in Ukraine. Seth Jones of CSIS wrote in The Wall Street Journal that a Russian victory in Ukraine “would send shock waves across the globe, make China and Iran bolder, and endanger NATO.”

If Russia prevails in Ukraine and attacks another country, it will be with battle-hardened forces.  Russia’s army “has become a learning organization that little resembles the chaotic force that invaded Ukraine two years ago,” Cavoli told Congress on April 10.  As a result, NATO members will require an integrated combined arms capability along the entire eastern border able to move quickly where needed to deter and confront Russia.  The speed and direction of attack will not take shape until the battle is underway.  Political decisions, delays or constraints on airpower could make this a tank-on-tank battle. 

Modern US and allied armor forces, anchored by a common Abrams platform, are the only way for the alliance to counter Russian armor.  Together, the US and Poland can provide the necessary mass of armor to make this credible. Washington should work with Warsaw to prioritize the acquisition and expedited production of an additional 250 Abrams to Poland and define a schedule to support additional quantities. This defense partnership will be the heart of NATO’s way ahead.

Poland’s defense modernization, exceeding four percent of its GDP, has been impressive and must continue.  For its part, the US needs to match Poland’s commitment with rapid delivery of more Abrams tanks.  “The United States and Poland reiterate our unwavering commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory,” Washington and Warsaw announced on April 22.