Trouble For Poland on NATO’s Eastern Front (From RealClearDefense)

As talks for a Ukraine peace plan continue, the goal is to end Russian expansion once and for all.  But there’s a spot of trouble on NATO’s critical Eastern front.  Russia is pressuring Poland, and the relationship between the U.S. and Poland, staunch military allies, has been marred by a string of complaints about American foreign policy emanating from officials including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.  Read below and here.

One look at the map shows Poland is the strategic pivot of NATO’s front line.  That’s why Russia is putting serious pressure on Poland.  Back on September, 19 Russian drones flew into Polish airspace.  “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II,” Tusk said.  Then Russia sent agents who blew up a train on the Warsaw-Lublin rail link to Ukraine on November 17.  Days ago Poland’s ambassador to Russia was roughed up on the street.

Diplomatic Doghouse.  This is no time for Poland to be in the diplomatic doghouse.  Poland should be riding high as the model ally in NATO.  Poland spends 4.7% of its gross domestic product on defense and purchases billions of dollars of modern U.S. weapons systems.  

Yet as recently as Nov. 24, Tusk called the U.S. draft peace plan for Ukraine “a delicate matter” and suggested several draft points were inserted by the Russians.  “We are doing all we can to keep the United States on the same side,” he said, commenting from the sidelines of an EU-Africa summit in Luanda, Angola even as Secretary of State Marco Rubio huddled with Ukrainian officials in Geneva. 

Marta Prochwicz-Jazowska anticipated these tensions a year ago in her piece for the European Council on Foreign Relations aptly titled “Between Two Donalds.”  While Prochwicz-Jazowska analyzed areas for cooperation, the sniping about American policy instead turned into a source of tension.  Word has it that Tusk was conspicuously uninvited to the last-minute White House meeting of NATO leaders in August, following Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska.  “Poland knows how to punch above its weight, but disunity has pushed it back down the pecking order,” lamented one commentator. 

Poland has paid a diplomatic price, but there are bright spots.  “Poland and the USA have enormous potential to act together and we will utilize it,” Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz posted after his November 19 meeting with new U.S. Ambassador to Poland Tom Rose. 

The answer is to focus on the bright spot that is defense cooperation.  In fact, Poland is in a strong position to ask for more. 

Poland’s new President, Karol Nawrocki, is a Trump favorite who got a warm welcome and an F-35 flyover at the White House on September 3.   Trump reconfirmed the U.S. military commitment to Poland during their meeting.    When asked about the 10,000 U.S. soldiers assigned there, Trump said they “will be staying in Poland.”

Then Trump offered an enticing invitation.  “We’ll put more there if they want,” Trump suggested.   President Trump’s remarks are a green light.  Nawrocki has a blank check.  He should use it quickly to publicly ask the U.S. to put a second rotational armor brigade in Poland.  Here are three specific steps Poland should take to tighten the military cooperation.

A Second U.S. Armor Brigade for Poland.  The White House would likely reply that it is willing to consider that, if the Polish Government formally asks. Prime Minister Tusk and President Nawrocki are reported to be in agreement on national security, and the importance of the defense partnership with the U.S.   Twice as many U.S. Army Abrams tanks based in Poland, and using the Poznań maintenance facility operated by Polish industry, would be a powerful symbol of that partnership. 

Accelerate Counter-Drone Operations.  “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones?” Trump posted after the September 9 incursion.  Drones are one of Russia’s most menacing weapons, whether in the hundreds launched nightly against Ukraine, or the suspicious swarms over European airfields and infrastructure.  U.S., Polish and Romanian soldiers demonstrated a new counter-unmanned aircraft system capability at the Nowa Dęba Training Area in Poland on November 18.  This cooperation should be accelerated. 

Increase Poland’s Tanks.  NATO needs tanks and airpower to counter Russia and more tanks need to be in Poland.  Russia could not have invaded Ukraine in 2022 if Ukraine had possessed a significant, trained armor force.  Poland is buying over 300 M1 Abrams tanks at a high rate of production, fully interoperable with NATO systems.  The Abrams Tank Training Academy (ATTA) opened in August 2022 in Poland and General Dynamics Land Systems has deals with several Polish companies for the production and supply of 52 different parts for Abrams tanks.  However, Warsaw’s actual requirement is closer to 800 modern tanks to complete its armor modernization plans.  With Saudi Arabia purchasing 300 M1 Abrams, this is a good time to buy. 

Poland is the linchpin of NATO’s ground forces for countering and deterring Russia.  Over a year ago, a CSIS report led by Seth Jones concluded that “the U.S. Army should remain a bulwark for deterrence in Europe” to include permanent stationing of U.S. forces and a headquarters as well. 

“We’re with Poland all the way, and we will help Poland protect itself,” Trump said in September.  The next move is Warsaw’s.