U.S. Navy “Steel Wall” Blockade Gives U.S. Upper Hand with Iran (From FOX News)

With hints from Senator Bill Hagerty, Senator Bill Cassidy, and Vice President J.D. Vance that U.S. tactics are working in the Strait of Hormuz, FOX News Anchor Nate Foy led off the discussion of why the U.S. is confident enough to ignore Iran’s shrill demands.  Highlights below, and full clip here.

Senator Bill Cassidy (Sound on Tape): We are having success getting oil out of the Strait.  That success blunts the effectiveness of what the Iranians are trying to do in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nate Foy: Iran knows that energy prices will remain high for Americans ahead of an election coming up in November.  Who is more desperate to end this war?

Rebecca Grant: Oh, there is no question that Iran is in the desperate position.  The IRGC would love to make some money off the Strait, but it’s just not going to happen.  Thanks to the U.S. Navy, President Trump is able to sit back and take his time, and basically ignore all these demands.  And the reason is, as Vice President J.D. Vance hinted over the weekend, there is oil coming out of the Strait, through pipelines, and also through dark transits, and ship-to-ship transfers.  The international mariners are a pretty clever bunch, and there is quite a bit coming out, and that’s why we hear this talk about oil continuing to flow, so Iran is never going to have leverage over the Strait of Hormuz in the long term.

Nate Foy: We’re definitely seeing the American military might.  However, a lot of the demands that we saw early in this war regarding Iran’s nuclear program are now applying just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  Over the weekend, Iran laid out those demands, which include billions of dollars in sanctions relief, even war reparations they’re calling for, and U.S. troops withdrawing from the region and ending the naval blockade.  What did you think of the regime’s new demands?

Rebecca Grant: Iran’s demands are completely unreasonable.  They really show that the IRGC is out of options.  All they can do now is these occasional, terrorist-like attacks towards international shipping, and towards U.S. bases.  But remember, we still have 50,000 U.S. service members there: 2 aircraft carriers, the amphibious ship USS Boxer, destroyers, you know the list goes on, and our Space Force watching all that as well.  The alarming point to me is what becomes of the nuclear dust, but let’s remember we have extremely good overwatch of that area, and we have ended Iran’s ability to enrich and that path to a nuclear weapon. Iran responds to U.S. military pressure, and Admiral Cooper will keep that pressure on as long as he needs to.

Nate Foy:  And President Trump has repeatedly threatened to increase that military pressure.  However, over the weekend, he sort of changed his tune a bit, seemingly keen now on applying more economic pressure or at least allowing the current economic pressure to play out over a longer period, potentially leading to unrest within Iran.  Is there even a chance of that happening, domestic unrest with the control that the regime has over its people?

Rebecca Grant: I sure would love to see that, and we know that the IRGC really is weakened.  Remember they’re not just the military force, they’re in business as well, so the blockade, the “steel wall,” the sanctions that the Treasury Department has put on them, all the other economic pressure, really does have a direct effect in the end on the IRGC. That’s a really huge element.  The other reason we can do this, is because of the level of air and sea dominance.  The strikes a few weeks ago cleaned up a lot of the IRGC activity along the coast.  There’s always the option to go in big if necessary, but right now, President Trump wants to see that economic pressure play out.  And because oil markets are flowing, not to the extent we want to see, but the oil markets are moving, we do have some ships coming out of Hormuz, oil coming through there, he’s got the ability to play both the economic and the military at the same time, and it’s a good strong position for the USA.

Nate Foy: He certainly has his hands full because there’s always a lot going on in the region.  All this comes as Israel is pushing back on the new Gaza peace plan, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu essentially saying that all weapons will need to be removed from Gaza; light weapons, heavy weapons, all of them.  Some are saying this is sort of a timing difference.  Is it actually a timing difference, or is this a fundamental difference that’s going to be difficult for the U.S. to mediate?

Rebecca Grant:  The sticking point, as you point out, is when does the IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces, do their phased withdrawal.   Netanyahu has said: not till we have Hamas completely disarmed.  I think there’s going to need to be some middle ground there. Remember, Israel does have an election coming up in October.  The good news to me is, there’s now very concrete talk about the Board of Peace international stabilization for Gaza, with troops from places like Morocco, Uganda, and Indonesia ready to come in and do the policing of Gaza.  Because the key is you do have to disarm Hamas the rest of the way, so that nothing like October 7th can ever happen again.