Ukraine will Need Lots of Tanks to Deter Russia 

Sooner or later, there will be a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. Whatever the resolution of territorial borders is, an independent Ukraine will, at minimum, continue to exist west of the Dnieper River with Kiev as its capital. Both countries are waging successful aerial drone assaults on each other, but the political shocker is how successfully Ukraine is hitting Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Russia’s oil refineries. Russia’s air defense has once again been exposed to the world as subpar, to put it politely. 

Ukraine and its supporters in the West, especially the United States, will quickly need to address rearming Ukraine to deter future aggression. Ukraine has proven to be brave, resilient, and worthy of such support. Russia’s intentions regarding its neighbors are clear as a bell. All countries in Europe with Russia on their borders will want security assurances. Russia always comes back for more. Poland already feels it is at war with Russia, with regular cyberattacks, sabotage, and drone airspace incursions.

Missiles and drones do not hold territory. Only soldiers in armored vehicles can move forward to protect a threatened border. Ukraine will require lots of these. The main battle tank, the king of ground combat, must be a key component of Ukraine’s conventional deterrence capability. Ukraine will likely require roughly 1,000 tanks. 

It is unlikely that Russia would accept NATO-member military capabilities being based in Ukraine. It is also unlikely NATO would ever deploy there. There will, however, be thousands of American soldiers and hundreds of U.S. Army Abrams tanks based on Ukraine’s border in Poland. Poland will have the strongest defense capability in Europe as a result of its national security modernization program, high levels of defense spending, and acquisition of the most modern weapons systems. Poland itself may eventually have nearly 1,000 Abrams tanks anchoring its armor forces and is already building out its own organic defense industrial base.

Poland has served admirably as Ukraine’s defense depot for American and Western aid during the ongoing Russian invasion. That support role must continue into the future. Poland already operates an Abrams tank sustainment center in Poznan that will maintain both Polish and U.S. Army combat vehicles. Co-production of Abrams tanks in Poznan for Poland and other East European countries, potentially including Ukraine, is the plan. 

Ukraine should plan on acquiring Abrams tanks for its required rearmament. With an industrial infrastructure to manufacture and support it just across the Polish border, associated with an established force of trained American and Polish Abrams armored brigades, purchasing Abrams would be the fastest way for Ukraine to acquire a credible armor deterrent. No other tank program could match the U.S.-Polish ability to scale vehicle production and delivery to fill Ukraine’s needs. 

President Trump has already raised the idea of Ukrainian organic production of Patriot air and missile defense missiles. The Trump Administration should begin acquainting Ukraine’s national security leadership with the capabilities and advantages of utilizing the Abrams main battle tank in its rearmament. The Abrams industrial complex in Poland will be able to support any other East European customers, like Romania, as well. Commonality and interoperability with U.S. Army tank forces will be strengthened. These benefits should make the Abrams tank, alongside the F-35 fighter, Patriot missile, and Apache attack helicopter, the region’s gold standard national defense asset.