Ukraine’s Fatal F-16 Crash Should Scare Russia And China (From Fox News)

The gut-wrenching loss of an Ukraine Air Force F-16 chasing Iranian-made drones at low altitude last week is proof positive that Ukraine’s air force is becoming more aggressive and capable.  Read my FOX News piece here.  But there’s a sober combat lesson here for the U.S. vs. China. The daily air battles against missiles and drones over Ukraine are only a taste of what U.S. bases and allies could experience in the event of Chinese attacks. 

The U.S. and NATO are committed to air power for Ukraine, finally, and past caring about Putin’s warnings about escalation.  Note that this was a very capable F-16, tuned up by the U.S. Air Force’s elite 68th Electronic Warfare Squadron.  Last month, the squadron said it reprogrammed the electronic warfare subsystems for Ukraine’s F-16s to counter the evolving Russian jamming and spoofing. 

“Providing those jets, we see it as important to protect Ukraine from further escalation from Russia,” Mes said last year.  Ukraine’s willingness to use – and lose – F-16s in combat strengthens the country’s defenses.  The specific combat lessons from Ukraine will apply to future tactics. 

For China, it’s a matter of tactics and deterrence.  China could put hundreds of drones and missiles in the air in waves of attacks around a Pacific island ally.  As China grows more formidable, there’s a trend towards believing that the U.S. Air Force will only “stand off” with long-range weapons and bombers, leaving the close-in fight to drones.  Don’t count on it. 

In just one month of operations, Ukraine’s bare handful of F-16s have shown that the latest tactics call for getting in close to go after drones and missiles.  The scenarios differ, but the U.S. and allies are getting a fair amount of tactical feedback from Ukraine.  The reality is that Air Force planners in the Pacific are preparing for a hard fight with bases under heavy attacks, of a type not seen since World War II.  In the imperative to deter China, every combat lesson from Ukraine will help.