What If ISIS Wins? (From Forbes)

Conflict in the Middle East is so confusing that it’s easy to miss the big picture.  What’s really happening is that one by one the Arab states in the region are failing, and the borders drawn by Europeans a century ago are beginning to dissolve.  The most powerful force bringing about this collapse is pan-Arab fundamentalism, as exemplified in the organization often called ISIS.  ISIS isn’t a loose association of like-minded jihadists like al-Qaeda, it is a real Army that defeats enemies, occupies land, and seeks to build an ultra-orthodox theocracy (called a caliphate).  The West has shown little capacity to change the conditions that make ISIS a beacon for disaffected young Moslem men across the region.  Dropping bombs on ISIS targets is a start, but so far that shows little sign of weakening the grip ISIS exerts on the region.  I have written a commentary for Forbes here. –